The UEFA Champions League (UCL) has long attracted both football fans and sports bettors. As the world’s premier club competition, it draws billions in betting volume every season. But which teams do bettors favor—and why? How have underdog wins and payout ratios shaped the landscape? This year’s spotlight matchup, PSG takes on Inter Milan in the epic 2025 Champions League Final, adds another exciting chapter to the evolving story.
Favorites Get the Most Action
Historically, betting markets have leaned toward elite clubs like Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, and Manchester City. These teams attract more wagers due to their brand power and track records, even when form doesn’t justify the odds.
This favoritism creates a feedback loop. Heavy betting causes odds to shorten, and bookmakers anticipate this behavior—pricing favorites slightly lower than their true probability to manage exposure.
Between 2013 and 2023, teams like Real Madrid and Bayern were consistently the most backed in outright markets. Madrid’s three-title run (2016–2018) further solidified their “safe bet” reputation among casual and seasoned gamblers alike.
Underdogs Pay—But Rarely
Underdogs offer larger payouts, especially in knockout rounds. Ajax’s 2018–19 run, where they beat Real Madrid and Juventus, came with pre-match odds ranging from +400 to +700. Bettors who backed them saw significant returns.
Still, these wins are rare. Chasing long shots blindly often leads to losses. The smart play is identifying situations where the odds undervalue a team’s actual chance—like when a favorite is missing key players or facing a tactical mismatch.
Notable underdog wins include:
- 2012: Chelsea winning the final vs. Bayern Munich.
- 2019: Tottenham’s comeback vs. Ajax in the semis.
- 2020: Lyon beating both Juventus and Manchester City.
These results made headlines—and money—for those willing to take the risk.
Group Stage vs. Knockout Betting Trends
During the group stage, favorites dominate and results tend to be predictable. Many bettors use accumulator (parlay) bets to combine several favorites for bigger returns, though one upset can ruin the ticket.
In knockout rounds, the action becomes more balanced. Bettors target underdogs for value, and home/away dynamics influence decisions. The removal of the away goals rule in 2021 shifted betting behavior, making second-leg comebacks more common and bets more reliant on in-game momentum.
In-Play Betting: The New Frontier
In-play (live) betting has surged in recent years. It allows bettors to respond to real-time developments—like red cards or momentum swings. Liverpool’s 4–0 comeback over Barcelona in 2019 is often cited as a prime example of live betting success.
Those who spot shifts before the odds adjust can find value. But it requires sharp focus and quick decisions. Chasing losses during the match is a common pitfall.
Payout Ratios: A Look at Returns
Bookmakers build margins (overround) into every market. Payouts for outright winners are usually lower (~90–92%) compared to individual matches. Favorites offer modest returns (e.g., -200 pays $0.50 per $1), while underdogs at +500 pay $5 per $1—though with much lower hit rates.
Smart bettors track payout ratios and look for “soft” lines—markets where new information (injuries, lineup changes) hasn’t yet been priced in.
Final Thoughts
Champions League betting trends over the last decade show a clear divide: favorites dominate wagers due to their perceived safety, while underdog backers chase rare, high-reward upsets. The rise of live betting and sharper odds analysis has made the game more dynamic.
The edge goes to those who bet with strategy, not emotion—understanding context, timing, and value. In the world of UCL betting, knowledge and discipline still beat gut instinct.